Why Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's planned negotiations on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian leadership summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the both countries' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs White House without results

The on-again, off-again summit is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in the North African country last week to commemorate that truce deal, the president addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia done," he said.

Nonetheless, the conditions that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Reduced Influence

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was Israel's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump bargaining power to compel Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

Trump gained from a history of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.

Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to supply Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the president has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and pausing arms shipments to the country - only to then retreat in the face of worried European partners who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

The president often boasts about his skill to sit down and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's summit in the summer produced no concrete results.

Putin may in fact be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in direct negotiations - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package backed by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating sending long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, the president hosted Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly tense meeting.

The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has rejected.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could end the conflict in Ukraine in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is turning out harder than he expected.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.

Edward Moreno
Edward Moreno

A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in the UK betting industry, specializing in odds analysis and responsible gaming.