A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
